Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) was developed as a result of dissatisfaction of economists with large number of neo-Keynesian macroeconomic models, especially when it comes to forecasting economic trends. It was necessary to develop a model whose parameters would be applicable independently of the economic policy. On the brink of the fourth industrial revolution, which, unlike the previous, is moving with an exponential rather than a linear trend, it is important to look at all the challenges that economic policy (and the economy in general) will face. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to point out the advantages of using the DSGE model in the analysis and forecasting of economic trends. Increases in efficiency, productivity, revenue in general; opening new markets and economic growth; increasing the quality of life are just some of the assumptions that relate to the fourth industrial revolution. However, the risks that might arise under the influence of the revolution are uncertain and unpredictable. The challenge for economists is how to measure the impact of these assumptions and how to manage the risks most effectively.

Read online

Download this PDF file

Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, S., and Trabandt, M. (2018). On DSGE models. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 32, No. 3, Pp. 113-140. Preuzeto 11. marta 2019. sa sajta http://en.cafr.cn/Events/fom/D1_3_CET_jep2018.pdf

Dragutinović D. (2008). Power and Weakness of Monetary Policy in Striking a Balance Between Balance of Payments and Inflation-Related Objectives, NBS working paper, Belgrade: National Bank of Serbia. Preuzeto 13. marta 2019. sa sajta http://www.nbs.rs/internet/latinica/90/90_0/2008_12_DD.pdf

Fabris, N. (2018). Da li je savremena makroekonomska teorija u krizi? Ekonomske ideje i praksa, Ekonomski fakultet u Beogradu, broj 30, str. 7-21. Preuzeto 11. marta 2019. sa sajta http://www.ekof.bg.ac.rs/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/001.pdf

Ghironi F. (2018). Macro needs micro. NBER Working Paper Series 23836, Preuzeto 15. marta 2019. sa sajta https://www.nber.org/papers/w23836.pdf

Grga N., and Urošević B. (2014). Application of dynamic stohastic general equilibrium models to the case of the Serbian economy. Economic Annals. Faculty of Economics Belgrade. Volume LIX, No. 201 Pp. 35-68. Preuzeto 12. marta 2019. sa sajta https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/a1db/81ccd14559775714a11b7bc63d7d7e903abd.pdf

Hendry D. and Muelbauer, J. N. J. (2018). The Future of macroeconomics: macro theory and models at the Bank of England. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 34, No. 1-2, Pp. 287 - 328. Preuzeto 12. marta 2019. sa sajta https://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/department-of-economics-discussion-paper-series/the-future-of-macroeconomics-macro-theory-and-models-at-the-bank-of-england

Krugman, P. (2018). Good enough for government work? Macroeconomics since the crisis. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 34, No. 1-2, Pp. 156 - 168. Preuzeto 15. marta 2019. sa sajta https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/34/1-2/156/4781811

Portillo, R. (2017), Monetary and Fiscal Policy Analysis with DSGE models, IMF, Joint Viena Institut

Schwab. K. (2015), The Fourth Industrial Revolution: what it means, how to respond, World Economic Forum. Preuzeto 11. marta 2019. sa sajta https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond

Slanicay, M.(2014). Some Notes on Historical, Theoretical and Empirical Background of DSGE models. Review of Economic Perspectives, Faculty of Economics and Administration, The Journal of Masaryk University. Preuzeto 13. marta 2019. sa sajta https://content.sciendo.com/view/journals/revecp/14/2/article-p145.xml

Stiglitz, J. E, (2018). Where modern macroeconomics went wrong. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 34, No. 1-2, Pp. 70 - 106. Preuzeto 12. marta 2019. sa sajta https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/Where-Modern-Macroeconomics-Went-Wrong.pdf