A significant shift occurs in the economic trajectory of nations as they transition from a state characterized by limited prosperity, high child mortality rates, and high fertility to a phase marked by increased prosperity, reduced child mortality, and lower fertility levels. Following a review of the economic literature on the connection between demographics and economics, this paper aims to explain the correlation between Serbia's demographic patterns and economic development since 2000. It demonstrates that this transition is best understood through a developmental cycle involving child mortality rates, fertility rates, and nominal GDP. Fertility rates tend to rise alongside GDP growth, while the child mortality rate is closely linked to GDP levels. However, the correlations between fertility rates and child mortality are comparatively weaker. The paper showcases how this research can be utilized to assess policy measures and establish more precise, country-specific development targets.

Read online

Download this PDF file

Eurostat (2022). Enlargement countries - population statistics. Retrieved 12.04.2024. from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Enlargement_countries_-_population_statistics&oldid=627754#Fertility_rates

Götmark, F., and Andersson, M. (2020). Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs. BMC Public Health, 22:20(1), pp. 265.

Investopedia (2024). Nominal Gross Domestic Product: Definition and Formula. Retrieved 28.04.2024. from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nominalgdp.asp

Laerd Statistics (2020). Pearson's product moment correlation. Statistical tutorials and software guides. Retrieved 10.04.2024. from https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/pearson-correlation-coefficient-statistical-guide.php

Lee, R., and Mason, A. (2010). Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition. Eur J Popul, 26(2), pp. 159-182.

Lutz, W., and Gailey, N. (2020). Depopulation as a Policy Challenge in the Context of Global Demographic Trends. Belgrade: UNDP

Ministarstvo za brigu o porodici i demografiju (2024). Informator o radu. Retrieved 18.04.2024. from https://www.minbpd.gov.rs/informator-o-radu-april-2023-godine-2/

Nikitović, V., Arsenović D., Sekulić, A., and Bajat B. (2019). Is the Second Demographic Transition a useful framework for understanding the spatial patterns of fertility change in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century? AUC Geographica, 54(2), pp. 152-167

Ranganathan, S., Swain, R. & Sumpter, D. (2015). The demographic transition and economic growth: implications for development policy. Palgrave Commun, 1, 15033

Republički fond za zdravstveno osiguranje (2023). Vantelesna oplodnja. Potpomognuto oplodjenje. Retrieved 28.04.2024. from https://www.rfzo.rs/index.php/osiguranalica/vto

Sedano, F. (2008). Economic Implications of Mexico's Sudden Demographic Transition. Business Economics, vol. 43, pp. 40–54.

Stanojević, D., Pavlović Babić, D., Matković, G., Petrović, J., Arandarenko, M., Gejli, N., Nikitović, V., Luc, V., and Stamenković, Ž. (2022). Nacionalni izveštaj o ljudskom razvoju – Srbija 2022. UNDP Srbija

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (2023). Demographic Yearbook. Statistical office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade. Retrieved 08.04.2024. from https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2023/Pdf/G202314020.pdf

World Health Organization (2022). Perinatal deaths per 1000 births. Retrieved 15.04.2024. from https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_84-1170-perinatal-deaths-per-1000-births/#id=18889&fullGraph=true

Zgirski, S. D. (2020). The Eastern European Fertility Crisis. Western Washington University: Anthropology Department Scholars