GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS AND SERBIAN STOCK MARKET REACTION

Ekonomski fakultet u Subotici, Univerzitet u Novom Sad, Srbija
Serbia

Ekonomski fakultet u Subotici, Univerzitet u Novom Sad, Srbija
Serbia

Ekonomski fakultet u Subotici, Univerzitet u Novom Sad, Srbija
Serbia


Abstract

Still not sufficiently recovered from the shocks caused by the Kovid-19 pandemic, capital markets in the world faced a new challenge, namely the war conflict in Ukraine. The effects and consequences of uncertainty, caused by emerging geopolitical circumstances, and the reactions of financial markets, have not yet been sufficiently explored. Bearing in mind that stock markets are one of the main pillars of both the financial and economic well-being of each individual country, the aim of the paper is to examine whether there are differences in the values of the index of the Belgrade Stock Exchange, BELEX15, in the period of one year before and one year after the outbreak of war conflict in Ukraine. The authors start from the assumption that there are significant differences in the values of the index of the Belgrade Stock Exchange BELEX15, in the period of one year before and after the beginning of the war conflict. A paired samples t-test was used to examine differences. The results indicate that, compared to the period before the outbreak of the war, in the period after the outbreak of the war, a growing trend of the observed index was recorded. The obtained results also indicate statistically significant differences in BELEX15 values for the observed period. Information about stock market reactions to the war conflict in Ukraine can be useful, above all, to investors when making investment decisions.

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