The characteristics of the modern global insurance market are conditioned by macroeconomic shocks arising from catastrophic risks such as pandemic risk, which are occurring more and more often and endanger its sustainable development. The unfavorable geopolitical situation, which culminated with the war in Ukraine, is the cause of a certain energy crisis that is turning into an economic crisis with far-reaching negative consequences on all segments of economic and social life and thus on the insurance market. Before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and after the pandemic caused by the Covid-19 virus calmed down, emerging markets were projected to be a key driver of global insurance sector development, and strong growth was expected in developed markets also. Also, it was expected that the positive effects of the paradigm shift caused by Covid-19, towards increased risk awareness, would gradually lead to an increase in insurance premiums and a recovery of the global insurance market. However, whether these expectations will be met depends on how severe the economic crisis caused by the war in Ukraine will be. Therefore, the paper will present possible scenarios for the future development of the world insurance market.

Read online

Download this PDF file

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. (2022а). Economic News Release. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category. Доступно на: Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category - 2022 M04 Results (bls.gov).

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. (2022б). The Economics Daily. Food prices up 10.8 percent for year ended April 2022; largest 12-month increase since November 1980. Доступно на: https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/food-prices-up-10-8-percent-for-year-ended-april-2022-largest-12-month-increase-since-november-1980.htm.

Deloitte. (2021). 2022 Insurance Industry Outlook. Digital and Talent Transformation Accelerating as Insurers Adapt for Postpandemic Growth. A report from the Deloitte Center for Financial Services. Deloitte Development LLC.

EY. (2022). 2022 Global Insurance Outlook. Achieving growth through people, purpose and technology. 2022 EYGM Limited.

Global Reinsurance. (2022). Insurance industry braces for soaring payouts from war in Ukraine. Доступно на: https://www.globalreinsurance.com/insurance-industry-braces-for-soaring-payouts-from-war-in-ukraine/1440607.article.

Ha, J., Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F. (2019). Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers and Policies. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Ha, J., Kose, M. A., Ohnsorge, F. (2022). From Low to High Inflation: Implications for Emerging Market and Developing Economies. CEPR Policy Insight No: 115. London: CEPR.

Helliwell, J. F. (1988). Comparative Macroeconomics of Stagflation. Journal of Economic Literature, 26(1), 1–28.

Koprivica, M. (2022). The impact of inflation risk on life and non-life insurers. Development of modern insurance market – constraints and possibilities, Kočović et al. (eds.), Belgrade: Faculty of Economics, pp. 255-271.

S&P Global Ratings. (2022). Russia-Ukraine Conflict Adds To A Bumpy Start To 2022 For Global Reinsurers. © 2022 S&P Global. https://www.spglobal.com/

Swiss Re. (2021). World insurance: the recovery gains pace. Sigma, 3(2021).

Swiss Re. (2022). Stagflation: the risk is back, but not 1970s style. Sigma, 2(2022).

World Bank Group. (2022). Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy. Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions Policy Note. Washington, DC: World Bank.

WTW. (2022). Insurance Marketplace Realities 2022 Spring Update. Willis Tower Watson.