ADAPTIVE DECISION-MAKING UNDER ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

Higher School of Applied Economics, Belgrade, Serbia
Serbia


Abstract

Contemporary economies are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty arising from the complexity of economic processes, rapid technological change, and limited predictability of future developments. In such an environment, traditional models of rational decision-making based on complete information and well-defined probabilities become increasingly insufficient, which creates a need for more adaptive approaches to economic behavior. This paper analyzes the theoretical mechanisms through which economic uncertainty influences the behavior of economic agents and the efficiency of decision-making processes. It focuses on how individuals and firms adjust their strategies under uncertainty through flexibility, expectation formation, and adaptive behavioral patterns. Particular attention is devoted to the role of institutions and innovations in mitigating the adverse effects of uncertainty. Innovations enhance the adaptability and efficiency of economic actors, while stable institutional frameworks provide predictability, legal security, and trust in economic relations. Their interaction represents a key mechanism for strengthening resilience in modern economic systems. The main contribution of the paper lies in integrating contemporary theoretical perspectives on uncertainty, decision-making, institutions, and innovation into a unified analytical framework, emphasizing the importance of a systemic approach to understanding economic behavior under conditions of heightened uncertainty

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References


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