QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF OVERCOMING NON-TARIFF BARRIERS IN TRADE BETWEEN THE EAEU AND THE EU

Ural Federal University, B. N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg, Russia
Russian Federation


Abstract

The paper examines the problem of quantifying non-tariff barriers and their impact on trade between the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). In modern international trade, non-tariff measures, such as technical standards, sanitary and phytosanitary regulations, licensing requirements and administrative procedures, are increasingly used as instruments of trade regulation. Although these measures often pursue legitimate objectives related to consumer protection, public health and environmental safety, they may also function as hidden forms of protectionism that restrict foreign producers’ access to markets.The purpose of this study is to systematize existing theoretical and empirical approaches to the analysis and quantification of non-tariff barriers and to identify the main institutional differences between the regulatory systems of the EU and the EAEU. The study is based on a literature review, comparative institutional analysis and an exploratory econometric assessment The study uses the logic of gravity models, discusses the calculation of ad valorem tariff equivalents and adds a PPML estimation based on open CEPII Gravity and CEPII NTM-MAP data.The results of the study show that differences in technical regulation, certification procedures and administrative practices between the two integration blocs create regulatory distance and increase transaction costs for firms. Empirical studies suggest that partial harmonization of standards and mutual recognition of conformity assessment procedures may significantly increase bilateral trade flows. The exploratory PPML estimation for EU–EAEU trade in 2010–2020 indicates a statistically significant relationship between NTM coverage and bilateral trade flows. However, the estimates are affected by the aggregated nature of the data, so they should not be treated as final causal results. The paper concludes that overcoming non-tariff barriers requires a combination of institutional coordination, gradual regulatory harmonization and the use of quantitative analytical methods.

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