ASSESSMENT REAL EFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA BY APPLYING THE MACROECONOMIC BALANCE APPROACH

Phoenix Pharma DD BiH
Bosnia and Herzegovina

Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Ekonomski fakultet Pale, RS, BiH
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Abstract

The main objective of this theme is based on calculating and adjusting the real equilibrium exchange rate, which should provide the equilibrium level of the current account by the application of the concept of macroeconomic balance approach. The paper used empirical and statistical methods of multiple linear regression establishing equilibrium relationship between the current account and the fundamental variables variables. Predictors variables account for fiscal balance, demographic variables, the growth of real income, net foreign assets, oil balance, economic growth, economic crisis and financial center. As a result of the research will show the deviation of the current real and the equilibrium exchange rate, which should be eliminated to the current account reached its equilibrium level. In addition we will create predictions about the direction in which to go. The practical implications are reflected in the integration with the International Monetary Fund in the field of performing the values for the equilibrium exchange rate and current account deficit on the basis of a specific model.

Keywords



Full Text


References


IMF (2006), “Methodology for CGER Exchange Rate Assessments”, Research Department, International Monetary Fund;

Lee, J., Milesi-Ferretti, G.M., Ostry, J., Prati, A., Ricci, L.A. (2008), “Exchange RateAssessment: CGER Methodologies”, Occasional Paper No. 261, Washington, DC :International Monetary Fund;

Bussière, M., Ca' Zorzi, M., Chudik, A., Dieppe, A. (2010), “Methodological Advances in the Assessment of Equilibrium Exchange Rates”, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1151, 7- 14, 42-56;

Siregar, R. (1999), “Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Inflation in Indonesia: Theory and Empirical Evidence”, Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 9, No. 4, 329-336;

Novo Plakalović, Monetarna ekonomija-teorija, institucije i politika, Ekonomski fakultet Srpsko Sarajevo, 2004;

Frederic S. Mishkin, Monetarna ekonomija, bankarstvo i finansijska tržišta, prevod, 7 izdanje, Data Status, Beograd 2006;

MichaelC. Burda & Charles Wyplosz: Makroekonomija, evropski udžbenik, 3. Izdanje;

Sarno, L., Taylor, M.P. (2002), “Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate”, IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, 65-105;

Kubota, M. (2009), “Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical modelling andempirical evidence”, Discussion Papers in Economics, York: University of York;

Zakon o Centralnoj banci Bosne i Hercegovine;

http://www.cbbh.ba/content/read/915

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19582.0